Author: Mark J. Heinicke

Belmont Stakes, 1973

BELMONT STAKES, 1973

Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes,
Planet-shaking meteors, the preposterously intense
Furnaces of suns.
Things measurable:
Equations represent them.
600 million tons of hydrogen fused to helium
Every second in the depths of our sun
(Unremarkable among suns):
Numbers that numb a mind.
But what ignites a heart
Has no measure.

In 1970 (so we count our planet’s travels,
Cued to the affairs of men),
Was born a horse more than animal
Drawn to a hidden star
Impelled by forces
That threw even coldly calculating oddsmakers
Into speechlessness.

Needing a name,
As we use names to hang our dreams on,
Humans named this presence
Secretariat.
A prosaic tag
Slapped on the transcendent.
No matter: in the end
Any name for him would have gathered wonder,
As a mountain gathers storms.

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A Little Learning. . . Climate Change Denial and Crank Science

Yesterday, I heard repeated for the umpteenth time the fact that, on average, Climate Change deniers know more science than believers. (I haven’t seen the polls, but this news came on NPR so I’m inclined to believe it.)

It’s really not so surprising. The history of science is littered with wacky contrarian claims—such as, Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity is wrong. (Let’s be clear: modifications of Einstein’s theory are in the works by many researchers, but the core of the theory is undisputed by the vast majority of physicists.)  By and large these claims are made by people who are highly science-literate, but who grasp at straws of evidence that are either misleading, misinterpreted, or outright bogus. Their partial knowledge seduces them to believe in their competence to chop away at the basic foundations of modern science.  For variations on the attack on General Relativity, see http://www.crank.net/

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What “Load Following” Means for Renewable Energy in California (hint: it means storage)

Here’s the bottom line of this post, for those who don’t want to wade into the weeds: major reliance on wind and solar electricity generation demands a lot of electrical energy storage—many times what is currently available. For reasons why, we look at “load following” in California in the summer of 2016.

California’s Energy Program

The state of California is pushing ahead rapidly to achieve a goal of 50% renewable electricity power production  by 2030.

This makes sense in California, since its terrain and climate are highly adaptable to both wind and solar generation.  In-state conventional hydroelectric—which in many places currently accounts for the largest fraction of renewable generation— is not included in California’s ambitious program. That also makes good sense, since worsening and recurring droughts make hydroelectric an iffy proposition in the state.

However, the 50% goal will only make sense with abundant energy storage capacity, little of which is currently available. The reason is the intermittency of wind and solar. Solar, obviously, does not generate power at night, and not much in cloudy conditions, and wind power depends on weather.

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“Air Shepherd” : Drones Protecting Elephants and Rhinos

Good news about drones?!

I recently heard the end of an interview on the BBC with a speaker for the Lindbergh Foundation’s “Air Shepherd” program.  See link to their website below.

Scared of drones? Me too. But in this case you have drones performing a vital service in the campaign to protect African elephants and rhinos from poachers and other threats.

Apparently, the drones are so quiet they can perform reconnaissance at heights as low as 400 feet without poachers hearing them. Mostly done at night with infrared cameras of course, but that’s when many poachers are active anyway.

http://airshepherd.org/

– Mark

Hope for Afghanistan? Maybe.

See the following thoughtful essay on Afghanistan from Joel Vowell, a veteran of three tours in the infantry in Afghanistan. I believe his rank is lieutenant colonel, maybe full colonel by now. He speaks of “rational optimism.” He makes a credible case for staying the course.

Most of you readers are wary of “military solutions” and attempts at regime change in the Middle East, for good reason. Nevertheless, what Vowell speaks of sounds deeper than a mere military engagement.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/09/07/rationally-optimistic-on-afghanistan/?utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=33974175

– Mark

Reasons to Cheer for Natural Gas

First off, since fracking has gotten an often deservedly bad rap for environmental damage, the case for natural gas must address fracking. Yes, fracking is bad in many places where it’s been done—places of high environmental and geological sensitivity. Fracking needs stricter and more vigilant regulation, and harsher penalties for malfeasance. In particular, the injection of waste fluids into underground wells. But we need natural gas for electricity generation as a bridge to a renewable energy future—not to mention its already widespread use for heating, where it is more efficient than electricity (and you have to think what generates your electricity), far cleaner than oil, and still farther cleaner than coal.

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Carbon Debt from Biomass Burning

Burning “biomass”—trees, grasses, and other plant matter—to generate electricity has been considered a “clean” technology in some quarters. Currently, European countries do not count carbon dioxide emitted from biomass burning as part of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is curious, given that burning biomass does emit carbon dioxide, as well as a small amount of methane.  How renewable is biomass burning? Does it leave a “carbon debt” of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

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Phaethon’s Fall

The following is my brief adaptation of a much longer piece, a translation of a poem in Ovid’s Metamorphoses by the poet and classicist Ted Hughes. Hughes’s book, Tales from Ovid, is a treasure, BUT since you’re unlikely ever to open it, I’ve taken the liberty of bringing to you, with a debt to Hughes, an allegory that may be even more relevant to our time than it was to Ovid’s. Thus. . .

Phaethon’s Fall

Phaethon importuned his father, Helios, charioteer of the Sun,
To give him the reins of the light-giving chariot
To drive across the sky for a day.
Helios, bound by an ill-considered oath,
With grim reluctance had to yield to the request.

The sky-horses, sensing weakness,
Careened wildly, and, unleashed,
Plunged downward,
Scorching the earth, boiling the seas.

Earth, in agony, cried out
To all-powerful Zeus, who
Struck down rash Phaethon with a thunderbolt.

Phaethon, consumed by flame,
Lived not long enough to regret his error.