When coincidences point to causation
(Actually, I lied about three guesses. It’s only one guess—mine—but I put its likelihood as better than 75%. Bear with me.)
On Sunday President Trump was, via Twitter, threatening IN ALL CAPS to rain down death and destruction on Iran because of . . . Iranian government rhetoric. The rhetoric was Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warning that war with his country would be “the mother of all wars.” (Rouhani has to talk tough because the clergy who really rule the country require it. I’m not sure they were entirely happy with the echo of Saddam Hussein saying that war between the U.S. and his country would be “the mother of all battles”—we all know how that turned out—but I wonder if Rouhani was chuckling inside.) Rouhani went on to fulminate, “Don’t play with fire, or you will regret [it]. Iranian people are master and they will never bow to anyone.”
WORDS. Words which are, in belligerence of tone, pretty much standard fare in Iranian bluster since the clergy toppled the U.S.-friendly Shah of Iran in 1979. And for those words, Rouhani got back the now notorious all-caps tweet from Trump: ‘NEVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER [blah blah blah to the effect that we’d squash Iran like a bug—mirroring the kind of rhetoric Rouhani used, only in the case of Trump, unlike Rouhani, it sounded as if the President was off on one of his temper tantrums, personally aggrieved by someone seeming to stand up to him].
On Tuesday, we hear a suddenly agreeable Trump saying his administration stands ready to come to the negotiating table. With Iran, that is. Followed by “shraararrasshreeshshshseesh” which was the sound of John Bolton tearing his hair out.
On Wednesday—this is the coincidence that points to causation—we find that “The White House has suspended the practice of publishing public summaries of President Donald Trump’s phone calls with world leaders, two sources with knowledge of the situation tell CNN, bringing an end to a common exercise from Republican and Democratic administrations.” [quoted from CNN politics].
Trump dog brought to heel
Hmm. Could the sudden turnaround on Iran have something to do with a phone call from a foreign leader in the intervening time—Trump’s favorite foreign leader, but one who also has ties to Iran? (According to Robin Wright, in the New Yorker on March 2nd, those ties are currently deepening.)* A phone call Donald Trump wants desperately for the public not to know about.
Here’s my guess: Vladimir Putin learns of Donald Trump raging against Iran in the manner of a meth-addled teenager. After rolling his eyes to his aides and saying the Russian equivalent of “this idiot needs another yank on the leash,” Putin picked up the phone to the White House and told Donald Trump to cool it on Iran. (I’m simplifying here. Conversations between foreign leaders are managed by national security experts, but in the end it’s mano a mano.) Bringing Trump to heel, so to speak.
(Alternatively, Putin got Sergey Lavrov to send the message via Mike Pompeo, but its source and import are the same: back off Iran, buddy.)
So here’s yet another (hypothetical but very possible) scenario in which our foreign policy is increasingly steered by the Kremlin. In the Iranian case, it was all to the good. But you get the feeling our inept president is being led on a path that spirals down into a mire from which our country may take a long time, if ever, to extricate itself.
Democrats, win the House in November and impeach the bastard.
=============== footnote follows =============
*Concerning deepening ties between Russia and Iran, see:
Robin Wright on Russia and Iran