Can bullying succeed against fanatics?
President Trump has bet that pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Iran will force Iran to come to accept major changes in the deal or go under economically. Furthermore, he has gone beyond invoking crippling sanctions to make an implied threat of military action if Iran continues its outlaw ways in the Middle East. Does Trump think Iran is trembling in fear of a U.S. attack?
I wonder. I just took a backward look at the Iran-Iraq War, that lasted from 1980-1988 and cost Iran more than 150,000 lives.* The minimum age for military service in Iran is 15; estimates put the fraction of fatalities aged 15-19 at one third (50 thousand). Iran also sent even younger children into battle. Although Iraq attacked first, Iran pushed the offensive for most of that time. As a fraction of the 1980 population of Iran (38.67 million), it is about 1 out of every 258 Iranians. A proportional loss inflicted on the U.S. today would cost 1,163,000 lives—more than twice the number of U.S. military killed in WWII (405,400), and close to twice the number killed in our Civil War (618,000). Given such past sacrifices, I expect that Iran is ready to let its people starve rather than yield to the U.S. After all, the North Koreans have been doing so for a long time, and Iran has far greater resources, and more friends, than North Korea.
Iran is also a principal promoter of suicide bombing.
Iran is still a theocratic state, whose ultimate leaders place their holy mission ahead of international peace and the well-being of their own citizens. They are fanatics who—as we saw in the war with Iraq—are willing even to send children to war, and see suicide bombing as a military component. Furthermore, they especially hate the United States. Those at the top most likely view the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as tantamount to war.
I’m not sure bringing Iran to its knees economically is going to deter the Iranian leadership from continuing to stand up to the U.S., and foment terror in the Middle East. Whatever sacrifices it takes to beat back “The Great Satan” will be embraced by the theocracy.
Change in Iran must come from within
As long as they abide by the conditions of the JCPOA, the Iranians can count on the international community to unite in opposition to a significant military attack by the U.S. If John Bolton expects Russia and China (who are still sticking to the JCPA) to stand by while the U.S. wages war against Iran. then he must be sanguine about the prospects of World War III. Let’s not ignore Putin’s recent nuclear saber-rattling. The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons is not out of the question, and the risk of escalation to strategic weapons once tactical nukes are used is horrifying.
Harsh economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. will succeed only if regime change is made by Iranians themselves. The only thing that will bring that about is a weakening of the theocracy—and after 39 years of their keeping their grip in spite of all the suffering and sacrifice endured by their citizens, that’s a bad bet.
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* The 150,000 figure may be high—or low, depending on whom you ask. One estimate is 750,000, by the “Correlates of War Project,” which is almost certainly high. For a survey and a skeptical look at the numbers, see Kurzman analysis of Iran-Iraq war fatalities
Whatever the number, it was more than double the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam War (58,220).