November 2017 – Page 2 – Forecast: partly sunny with a chance of cataclysms

Another scary crapshoot: Coronal Mass Ejection

The dice are loaded against Earth from the activity of that warm and friendly object that bestows most of the energy we use, our Sun. The worst effect of the Sun will be its roasting to death all life on earth a billion or so years hence. But that warming is nothing to worry about for the next few million years (this warming has virtually nothing to do with climate change on a scale of centuries, such as 2,000-10,000 A.D).

Short-term, the biggest wallop the Sun has in store for us is a Coronal Mass Ejection.

Just do a web search on Coronal Mass Ejection and you’ll get, along with a fascinating description and analysis, an eyeful of bad news about what CME’s could do to Earth–and what they have already done, the most dramatic recent manifestation being the 1859 “Carrington Event” (named after the astronomer who witnessed the flare accompanying the CME). In 1859, telegraph wires were jolted to a degree that knocked wireless operators off their chairs, ignited fires, and took down the entire telegraph network.

Continue reading “Uncertainty Part Two: When Comes the Big Shock?”

Here’s a little different slant on the old subjects of climate change and coronal mass ejections.

Climate: the Known Unknowns

Will the Earth be hotter in 2050 than today? What does the science say?

The simplest answer is, probably. A more complicated answer is, we don’t know.

We do know it is almost certain, that absent a 50% drop in carbon emissions within the next ten years, and a still steeper drop afterwards, Earth’s temperature will continue to rise dangerously fast on account of the enormous quantities of carbon dioxide we have already pumped into the atmosphere. But a 50% drop in ten years would be ruinous to the global economy and is, if not technically impossible, then politically so—even more the case now that the leaders of the world’s second worst carbon polluter have turned their backs on mitigation, and even adaptation. Furthermore, even a 50% drop leaves 50% still going, with the promise of (net) zero emissions still decades away.

Continue reading “Uncertainty Part One: Climate and Loaded Dice”