If Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s belligerent approach toward China’s activities* in the South China Sea—as conveyed in his confirmation hearing—were to continue, getting on Vladimir Putin’s good side makes perfect Realpolitik sense: squeeze China between the U.S. in the Pacific Ocean and Russia on land.
It’s not clear if Tillerson’s tough talk was mainly to cheer up hawks in the Senate during the hearing. But there’s more than just strategic thinking going into confrontation with China in the area, namely, oil and gas.
Key players from the fossil fuel industry lurk in the background of a combined U.S.-Russia agenda: Exxon-Mobil, Gazprom, and Rosneft, all of whom are driven by Sara Palin’s mantra, “Drill baby, drill.” See:
Tillerson Steps up to South China Sea Plate
It’s not enough for fossil fuel enterprises to pollute our air and water and belch forth immeasurable quantities of greenhouse gases, now they itch for a confrontation that could bring on a shooting war. And who knows if Chinese pal North Korea might want to get in on the act with their nukes?
Donald Trump has been thirsting for a pretext to wreak havoc in the international Big Time, and military action in the South China Sea might serve to slake his thirst. Steve Bannon has seen war between the U.S. and China within 5-10 years in his smoldering crystal ball. Personally, I figure Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Tillerson would find a way to dampen Trumpean fires, but you can’t count on it. You can’t count on anything with Trump, and if he thinks his buddy Putin will have his back against China, he will be sorely tempted to swagger into a showdown.
* Building islands, installing military equipment, and building airstrips on them: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/south-china-sea-artificial-islands-have-weapons-installed-report-n696311 Furthermore, China’s navy vessels have been scurrying about in the disputed area. China, of course, claims these vessels and the militarized islands are just for defense. From China’s point of view, the U.S. is the destabilizing force in the area. Over much of it, unsurprisingly, China claims sovereignty. As of this writing (Feb. 10) a Chinese warplane has just buzzed an American surveillance ship, the latest in a series of harassments. See: Freedom of navigation dispute