Fossil Fuel Advancement Playbook Employs the “Climate Change is Real” Admission
In the current week of Senate hearings for Trump’s nominations to head the EPA, the Department of Interior, and the Department of Energy, we have heard variations on a seemingly surprising theme, to wit: Climate Change is real and human activity has something to do with it. Surprising coming from them anyway—Scott Pruitt (EPA), Ryan Zinke (Interior), and Rick Perry (Energy)—all of whom had not so long ago belonged to the Climate Change Denial faction of the Republican Party.
The three are following the same playbook, a series of moves that lead us from the concern that fossil fuels might be messing up our climate, to the conclusion that fossil fuels are the remedy for the potential ills of climate change. Something along the lines of fighting fire with fire, a kind of global homeopathy. Here’s the play:
(1) Admit Climate Change science is not a hoax,
(2) Acknowledge Climate Change may actually be occurring.
(3) Acknowledge, that human activity might contribute in some way to Climate Change.
(4) Question whether the change is happening as quickly as most climate scientists fear.
(5) Question whether, even if it is happening quickly, is it all that dire.
– here between (5) and (6) is the move from hypotheses into policy –
(6) (a) if it is not dire, then other priorities such as economic development with fossil fuels should take precedence over costly efforts to minimize emissions; or (b) if it is dire, then we should move forward on adaptation, for which we will need the economic development made possible by fossil fuels.
This tactic has been preceded by the claim of their Fearless Leader Donald that Climate Change is a hoax, so that they appear reasonable by contrast. A well-timed execution of Public Relations rope-a-dope.
Step (6) is the masterstroke, which might plausibly be called the Tillerson Carbon Strategy,
named for the former ExxonMobil CEO and now nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. This strategy has not been bluntly stated, but it will evolve over time. The canny Tillerson, to his credit, publicly acknowledged the reality of climate change a decade ago, and has long expressed his preference for a carbon tax as a tool to limit carbon emissions. So far so good on the carbon tax, except that he has taken no concrete action to bring about a carbon tax aside from expressing his preference. Meanwhile, he continues to drop suggestions that we owe it to the poorer countries to help them adapt to climate change by promoting fast economic development, and by implication you don’t get fast economic development without using fossil fuels. Just ask China.
In his first Senate hearing, Tillerson, while acknowledging climate change is real, danced nimbly around questions of the contribution of human activity, the potential severity of the consequences, and what actions should be taken. In answer to Senator Corker’s question if human activity has contributed to climate change, he responded, “the increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are having an effect” and “our ability to predict that effect is very limited.” When asked if he would be willing to work with congress on climate change, he agreed in principle but not to what extent.
Tillerson also dodged the questions as to ExxonMobil’s longstanding scientific research about climate change and efforts to keep it under wraps, saying he “lacked the knowledge” to confirm or deny, adding “since I’m no longer with ExxonMobil, I’m in no position to speak on their behalf. . . the question would have to be put to them.”
What to Expect from the Perry-Pruitt-Zinke Axis of Obfuscation?
We can only wait and see (assuming they are confirmed). We can expect Perry to lean hard toward fossil fuels in his professed “all of the above” energy policy (echoes of Obama). We can expect Pruitt to go light on the enforcement of the Clean Power Plan, and expect Zinke to be enthusiastic about drilling/mining on public lands. What else they may be keeping under their sleeves is yet to be revealed.
(Speaking of drilling on public lands, what will happen in National Forests, which are under the jurisdiction of the Department of Agriculture, we can expect from whoever is appointed, a permissiveness toward drilling, mining, and laying of pipelines that we have not seen for the past eight years.)