Two-and-a-Half Reasons Not to Confirm Rex Tillerson That Will Not Work

Rex Tillerson: the Man and the Phenomenon

FIRST: Rex Tillerson, most obviously, represents the interests of Big Fossil. No matter how much he divests financial holdings, the social proclivities of human nature ensure his bias toward his longstanding friends, and thereby a tilting of the international energy field toward fossil fuel. No one, not even the Pope, is immune to the psychological influences of friends.  It’s not just Tillerson’s personal bias, it’s the fact of his being in the position itself that declares to the world: We Like Fossil Fuels.

SECOND: Not quite so obvious is the signal of the nomination of Tillerson not as a person, but as a phenomenon.  It’s the tacit agreement that a captain of a key international industry naturally belongs as chief diplomat of the world’s most powerful nation, no matter what industry s/he is connected with. The nomination of Satya Nadella (current CEO of Microsoft) would send the same signal. It’s the signal that we’re now unquestionably in the era of what David Korten wrote in When Corporations Rule the World, first published two decades ago.*

Whether or not Tillerson’s nomination goes through—even if he could be even-handed in respect to different businesses and different companies—the recognition that the political world is a more of a machine in the hands of a rich few, rather than the interaction of multiple social contracts, tells us that money is the dominant element of interaction between states, and profit is its metric.

Why Neither of these Factors Can Be Decisive in Tillerson’s Confirmation

As to the second factor, that a top business executive belongs as the topmost diplomat, it’s not even being talked about, so engrained is it in the worldview of those in political as well as financial power.

As to the first, the bias toward one industry over others that will unavoidably bias Tillerson’s decision-making (since he is a human being), the clout that that industry has in the halls of Congress swamps moral  considerations.

The toughest headwinds that Tillerson faces are all about Russia and Vladimir Putin. Marcio Rubio, in particular, has tried to box Tillerson in on the issue of human rights, asking Tillerson if he would label Vladimir Putin as a war criminal (and getting the expected hedging: “that’s a complicated issue that needs deep consideration” or words to that effect).

Apparently Marco Rubio as a single actor could block the nomination, but his hammering on this issue sounds like self-righteous grandstanding: what nominee for Secretary of State could call Putin a war criminal and go on to function diplomatically?  I can’t imagine even a Hillary Clinton nominee would agree to it. (Not that anyone could credibly argue that Putin is not a war criminal, just that it’s absolutely impractical for a Secretary of State to declare so publically.) I think we can expect a realistic friend of Rubio’s will call him off this illogical badgering.

There’s a secondary, negligible headwind in the form of questioning how his firm got away with hiding and neutralizing its own scientists’ conclusion that Anthropogenic Global Warming was quite probably real. It’s politically negligible since the great majority of Americans either disbelieve in AGW at all, or disbelieve that humans have much to do with climate change.  It will probably become non-negligible during the next decade, but none of us should hold our breaths.

No matter the weight of this issue with the public: Tillerson’s defense on the hidden research, spoken more than once, is categorical: “I have no knowledge.” In a few years it may be discovered that he did have knowledge, but that will be no reason for resignation in a Trump cabinet.

At least we can be wee a bit encouraged that Tillerson has agreed Climate Change is real (although his prescription is more about adaptation than mitigation).

Tillerson’s Ace in the Hole is the Likelihood that Any Other Trump Nominee Would Be Worse and Maybe a Lot Worse.

The danger of an alternative nominee is the elephant in the hearing room, and may be what’s keeping Democrats, as well as doubting Republicans, shy of an attack that could jeopardize his confirmation.

Points in favor of Tillerson: he is smart, confident, well informed, subtle, unflappable (so far), dispassionate, and capable of deflecting pointed questions with self-assurance—a firmness of self-assurance that projects credibility if the questioner lacks solid, provable evidence. (Add ruthlessness, and you understand how he rose to the acme of corporate power.)

These are all valuable assets in a diplomat. Also, we can be pretty sure he will be a firm counterweight to the volatile and ignorant Trump. Because of all this, I have to admit I breathed a sigh of relief when I first heard of Tillerson’s nomination. Unlike Trump, he is actually an impressive person, and I have a sense there’s more steel in Tillerson’s spine than in that of his blustery future boss.

Furthermore, Tillerson has long acquaintance with world leaders on account of the magnitude of his business dealings—he has many fingers in numerous global pies. I will be hugely surprised if he doesn’t get Senate confirmation.

* Evidently there’s a new edition of Korten’s book out more recently, which I have not read. I recommend it in either old or new editions because it explores, not just the  raw economic and political power  of corporations, but also the various channels and levels in which this power operates.